Where Switzerland lives most closely with immigration, it voted No most clearly

1. The national result: people and cantons both say No

The «No to a 10-million Switzerland (Sustainability Initiative)» failed at both the popular and the cantonal majority. 54.8 percent voted No (1'808'916 votes), 45.2 percent Yes (1'492'603 votes). Among the cantons, 8 4/2 in favour faced a majority of 12 2/2 against. Of 5'668'117 eligible voters, 58.9 percent took part — a high figure for an initiative.

At first glance a clear, almost unremarkable No. The result only becomes interesting when broken down geographically: support did not spread randomly across the country, but followed two lines — the density of immigration and the language border.

2. The central finding: more immigration, clearer No

Across all 26 cantons, the correlation between the foreign-resident share of the population (FSO, end-2024) and the Yes share is −0.63. Within the German-speaking cantons alone the relationship is even stronger, at −0.68. Where everyday life is most shaped by immigration, support for capping it was lowest.

The spread is wide: in Appenzell Innerrhoden (12.6 percent foreign share) 65.9 percent voted Yes, in Uri (17.0 percent) 59.9 percent. At the other end, Basel-Stadt (38.7 percent foreign share) rejected it most clearly with only 26.5 percent Yes, and Genève (41.7 percent) with 34.6 percent Yes. This is an aggregate, ecological correlation at canton level — not an inference about the behaviour of individuals, but a pattern between areas.

The denser the immigration, the clearer the No. Across all 26 cantons the correlation is −0.63 — a relationship between areas, not a judgement about individual voters.

3. The urban-rural paradox: a majority of municipalities Yes, the country still No

On the map, the Yes dominates: the median municipality returned a Yes share of 52.7 percent, and in 1'247 of 2'117 municipalities (58.9 percent) the Yes held the majority. The initiative still failed, because the large cities clearly rejected it — and that is where most people live.

The strongest Yes came from the village of Unteriberg SZ at 90.5 percent. The large cities pulled the other way: Bern voted 16.4 percent Yes, Zurich 24.1 percent, Lausanne 24.4 percent and Fribourg also 24.4 percent. A majority of municipalities is not enough in Switzerland — what counts is where people live. So an initiative could fail nationally even though it led in most municipalities.

4. The Röstigraben: culture outweighs the immigration share

The fourth finding is the most striking. The French-speaking cantons voted Yes by 39.2 percent on average, the German-speaking ones by 51.5 percent — a gap of 12.3 points. The surprise: the Romandie has the higher average foreign share at 28.3 percent, German-speaking Switzerland only 23.8 percent. Here the language region overrides the level of immigration.

The extremes of the canton ranking confirm both lines at once. The strongest support came from Appenzell Innerrhoden (65.9 percent), Schwyz (63.2 percent) and Uri (59.9 percent) — all German-speaking cantons with a low foreign share. The lowest were Basel-Stadt (26.5 percent), Neuchâtel (32.7 percent), Genève (34.6 percent) and Vaud (35.5 percent) — a mix of big city and Romandie. The relationship within German-speaking Switzerland (r = −0.68) remains strong; the Röstigraben lies over it as a layer of its own.

What the map shows

Three patterns overlap. Where many immigrants live, the Yes fell lower (r = −0.63). Where many people live — in the cities — the result tipped despite a Yes majority in most municipalities. And cutting across both, the Röstigraben drew a line of its own that immigration figures alone cannot explain. Together they produce a map on which closeness to immigration and rejection of the cap go hand in hand.

The Switzerland that lives most closely with immigration voted No most clearly.

Clino produced this analysis because employing domestic staff is our field, and a large share of these workers are immigrants. The study places an official result in geographic context and describes relationships between areas. Clino makes no voting recommendation — neither before nor after 14 June.